Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: Rationale, challenges, and approaches

Richard D. Riley; Gary S. Collins; Laura Kirton; Kym I.E. Snell; Joie Ensor; Rebecca Whittle; Paula Dhiman; Maarten Van Smeden; Xiaoxuan Liu; Joseph Alderman; Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar; Jay Manson-Whitton; Andrew J. Westwood; Jean Baptiste Cazier; Karel G.M. Moons; Glen P. Martin; Matthew Sperrin; Alastair K. Denniston; Frank E. Harrell; Lucinda Archer

doi:10.1136/bmj-2024-080749

Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: Rationale, challenges, and approaches

Richard D. Riley^*, Gary S. Collins, Laura Kirton, Kym I.E. Snell, Joie Ensor, Rebecca Whittle, Paula Dhiman, Maarten Van Smeden, Xiaoxuan Liu, Joseph Alderman, Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar, Jay Manson-Whitton, Andrew J. Westwood, Jean Baptiste Cazier, Karel G.M. Moons, Glen P. Martin, Matthew Sperrin, Alastair K. Denniston, Frank E. Harrell, Lucinda Archer

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › Academic › peer-review

11 Downloads (Pure)

Original language	English
Article number	e080749
Journal	BMJ
Volume	388
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2024-080749
Publication status	Published - 13 Feb 2025

Access to Document

10.1136/bmj-2024-080749Licence: CC BY-NC

bmj-2024-080749.fullFinal published version, 2.23 MBLicence: CC BY-NC

Cite this

Riley, R. D., Collins, G. S., Kirton, L., Snell, K. I. E., Ensor, J., Whittle, R., Dhiman, P., Van Smeden, M., Liu, X., Alderman, J., Nirantharakumar, K., Manson-Whitton, J., Westwood, A. J., Cazier, J. B., Moons, K. G. M., Martin, G. P., Sperrin, M., Denniston, A. K., Harrell, F. E., & Archer, L. (2025). Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: Rationale, challenges, and approaches. BMJ, 388, Article e080749. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2024-080749

@article{cbd1ff3e09664aae89ae263ff058aa9f,

title = "Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: Rationale, challenges, and approaches",

author = "Riley, \{Richard D.\} and Collins, \{Gary S.\} and Laura Kirton and Snell, \{Kym I.E.\} and Joie Ensor and Rebecca Whittle and Paula Dhiman and \{Van Smeden\}, Maarten and Xiaoxuan Liu and Joseph Alderman and Krishnarajah Nirantharakumar and Jay Manson-Whitton and Westwood, \{Andrew J.\} and Cazier, \{Jean Baptiste\} and Moons, \{Karel G.M.\} and Martin, \{Glen P.\} and Matthew Sperrin and Denniston, \{Alastair K.\} and Harrell, \{Frank E.\} and Lucinda Archer",

year = "2025",

month = feb,

day = "13",

doi = "10.1136/bmj-2024-080749",

language = "English",

volume = "388",

journal = "BMJ",

issn = "0959-8146",

publisher = "BMJ Publishing Group",

}

Riley, RD, Collins, GS, Kirton, L, Snell, KIE, Ensor, J, Whittle, R, Dhiman, P, Van Smeden, M, Liu, X, Alderman, J, Nirantharakumar, K, Manson-Whitton, J, Westwood, AJ, Cazier, JB, Moons, KGM, Martin, GP, Sperrin, M, Denniston, AK, Harrell, FE & Archer, L 2025, 'Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: Rationale, challenges, and approaches', BMJ, vol. 388, e080749. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2024-080749

TY - JOUR

T1 - Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models

T2 - Rationale, challenges, and approaches

AU - Riley, Richard D.

AU - Collins, Gary S.

AU - Kirton, Laura

AU - Snell, Kym I.E.

AU - Ensor, Joie

AU - Whittle, Rebecca

AU - Dhiman, Paula

AU - Van Smeden, Maarten

AU - Liu, Xiaoxuan

AU - Alderman, Joseph

AU - Nirantharakumar, Krishnarajah

AU - Manson-Whitton, Jay

AU - Westwood, Andrew J.

AU - Cazier, Jean Baptiste

AU - Moons, Karel G.M.

AU - Martin, Glen P.

AU - Sperrin, Matthew

AU - Denniston, Alastair K.

AU - Harrell, Frank E.

AU - Archer, Lucinda

PY - 2025/2/13

Y1 - 2025/2/13

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85218142635

U2 - 10.1136/bmj-2024-080749

DO - 10.1136/bmj-2024-080749

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85218142635

SN - 0959-8146

VL - 388

JO - BMJ

JF - BMJ

M1 - e080749

ER -

Uncertainty of risk estimates from clinical prediction models: Rationale, challenges, and approaches

Access to Document

Other files and links

Cite this