TY - JOUR
T1 - Trajectories of femorotibial cartilage thickness among persons with or at risk of knee osteoarthritis
T2 - development of a prediction model to identify progressors
AU - Deveza, L A
AU - Downie, A
AU - Tamez-Peña, J G
AU - Eckstein, F
AU - Van Spil, W E
AU - Hunter, D J
N1 - Funding Information:
There was no specific funding for this study. The OAI is a public-private partnership comprised of five contracts (N01-AR-2-2258; N01-AR-2-2259; N01-AR-2-2260; N01-AR-2-2261; N01-AR-2-2262) funded by the National Institutes of Health. Funding partners include Merck Research Laboratories; Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, GlaxoSmithKline; and Pfizer, Inc. Private sector funding for the Consortium and OAI is managed by the FNIH. Scientific and financial support for the FNIH OA Biomarkers Consortium and the study were made possible through grants, direct and in-kind contributions provided by: AbbVie; Amgen Inc.; Arthritis Foundation; Bioiberica S.A.; DePuy Mitek, Inc.; Flexion Therapeutics, Inc.; GlaxoSmithKline; Merck Serono; Rottapharm | Madaus; Sanofi; Stryker; The Pivotal OAI MRI Analyses (POMA) Study, NIH HHSN2682010000. We thank the OARSI for their leadership and expertise on the FNIH OA Biomarker Consortium project. DJH is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Practitioner Fellowship.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Osteoarthritis Research Society International
PY - 2019/2
Y1 - 2019/2
N2 - OBJECTIVE: There is significant variability in the trajectory of structural progression across people with knee osteoarthritis (OA). We aimed to identify distinct trajectories of femorotibial cartilage thickness over 2 years and develop a prediction model to identify individuals experiencing progressive cartilage loss.METHODS: We analysed data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) (n = 1,014). Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was used to identify trajectories of medial femorotibial cartilage thickness assessed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline, 1 and 2 years. Baseline characteristics were compared between trajectory-based subgroups and a prediction model was developed including those with frequent knee symptoms at baseline (n = 686). To examine clinical relevance of the trajectories, we assessed their association with concurrent changes in knee pain and incidence of total knee replacement (TKR) over 4 years.RESULTS: The optimal model identified three distinct trajectories: (1) stable (87.7% of the population, mean change -0.08 mm, SD 0.19); (2) moderate cartilage loss (10.0%, -0.75 mm, SD 0.16) and (3) substantial cartilage loss (2.2%, -1.38 mm, SD 0.23). Higher Western Ontario & McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scores, family history of TKR, obesity, radiographic medial joint space narrowing (JSN) ≥1 and pain duration ≤1 year were predictive of belonging to either the moderate or substantial cartilage loss trajectory [area under the curve (AUC) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74, 0.84]. The two progression trajectories combined were associated with pain progression (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.34, 2.97) and incidence of TKR (OR 4.34, 1.62, 11.62).CONCLUSIONS: A minority of individuals follow a progressive cartilage loss trajectory which was strongly associated with poorer clinical outcomes. If externally validated, the prediction model may help to select individuals who may benefit from cartilage-targeted therapies.
AB - OBJECTIVE: There is significant variability in the trajectory of structural progression across people with knee osteoarthritis (OA). We aimed to identify distinct trajectories of femorotibial cartilage thickness over 2 years and develop a prediction model to identify individuals experiencing progressive cartilage loss.METHODS: We analysed data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) (n = 1,014). Latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was used to identify trajectories of medial femorotibial cartilage thickness assessed on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at baseline, 1 and 2 years. Baseline characteristics were compared between trajectory-based subgroups and a prediction model was developed including those with frequent knee symptoms at baseline (n = 686). To examine clinical relevance of the trajectories, we assessed their association with concurrent changes in knee pain and incidence of total knee replacement (TKR) over 4 years.RESULTS: The optimal model identified three distinct trajectories: (1) stable (87.7% of the population, mean change -0.08 mm, SD 0.19); (2) moderate cartilage loss (10.0%, -0.75 mm, SD 0.16) and (3) substantial cartilage loss (2.2%, -1.38 mm, SD 0.23). Higher Western Ontario & McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) pain scores, family history of TKR, obesity, radiographic medial joint space narrowing (JSN) ≥1 and pain duration ≤1 year were predictive of belonging to either the moderate or substantial cartilage loss trajectory [area under the curve (AUC) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74, 0.84]. The two progression trajectories combined were associated with pain progression (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.34, 2.97) and incidence of TKR (OR 4.34, 1.62, 11.62).CONCLUSIONS: A minority of individuals follow a progressive cartilage loss trajectory which was strongly associated with poorer clinical outcomes. If externally validated, the prediction model may help to select individuals who may benefit from cartilage-targeted therapies.
KW - Cartilage
KW - Disease progression
KW - Knee
KW - Magnetic resonance imaging
KW - Osteoarthritis
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85055878667&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.joca.2018.09.015
DO - 10.1016/j.joca.2018.09.015
M3 - Article
C2 - 30347226
SN - 1063-4584
VL - 27
SP - 257
EP - 265
JO - Osteoarthritis and Cartilage
JF - Osteoarthritis and Cartilage
IS - 2
ER -