Theoretical potential for endometrial cancer prevention through primary risk factor modification: Estimates from the EPIC cohort

Renée T Fortner, Anika Hüsing, Laure Dossus, Anne Tjønneland, Kim Overvad, Christina C Dahm, Patrick Arveux, Agnès Fournier, Marina Kvaskoff, Matthias B Schulze, Manuela Bergmann, Antonia Trichopoulou, Anna Karakatsani, Carlo La Vecchia, Giovanna Masala, Valeria Pala, Amalia Mattiello, Rosario Tumino, Fulvio Ricceri, Carla H van GilsEvelyn M Monninkhof, Catalina Bonet, José Ramón Quirós, Maria-Jose Sanchez, Daniel-Ángel Rodríguez-Palacios, Aurelio B Gurrea, Pilar Amiano, Naomi E Allen, Ruth C Travis, Marc J Gunter, Vivian Viallon, Elisabete Weiderpass, Elio Riboli, Rudolf Kaaks

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Abstract

Endometrial cancer (EC) incidence rates vary ~10-fold worldwide, in part due to variation in EC risk factor profiles. Using an EC risk model previously developed in the European EPIC cohort, we evaluated the prevention potential of modified EC risk factor patterns and whether differences in EC incidence between a European population and low-risk countries can be explained by differences in these patterns. Predicted EC incidence rates were estimated over 10 years of follow-up for the cohort before and after modifying risk factor profiles. Risk factors considered were: body mass index (BMI, kg/m2 ), use of postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) and oral contraceptives (OC) (potentially modifiable); and, parity, ages at first birth, menarche and menopause (environmentally conditioned, but not readily modifiable). Modeled alterations in BMI (to all ≤23 kg/m2 ) and HT use (to all non-HT users) profiles resulted in a 30% reduction in predicted EC incidence rates; individually, longer duration of OC use (to all ≥10 years) resulted in a 42.5% reduction. Modeled changes in not readily modifiable exposures (i.e., those not contributing to prevention potential) resulted in ≤24.6% reduction in predicted EC incidence. Women in the lowest decile of a risk score based on the evaluated exposures had risk similar to a low risk countries; however, this was driven by relatively long use of OCs (median = 23 years). Our findings support avoidance of overweight BMI and of HT use as prevention strategies for EC in a European population; OC use must be considered in the context of benefits and risks.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1325-1333
Number of pages9
JournalInternational Journal of Cancer
Volume147
Issue number5
Early online date3 Feb 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sept 2020

Keywords

  • endometrial cancer
  • primary prevention
  • risk factors

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