The role of backyard poultry flocks in the epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (H7N7) in the Netherlands in 2003

In recent years, outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have caused the death of millions of poultry and of more than 200 humans worldwide. A proper understanding of the transmission dynamics and risk factors for epidemic spread of these viruses is key to devising effective control strategies. The aim of this study was to quantify the epidemiological contributions of backyard flocks using data from the H7N7 HPAI epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003. A dataset was constructed in which flocks in the affected area were classified as susceptible (S), infected but not yet infectious (E), infectious (I), and removed (R). The analyses were based on a two-type SEIR epidemic model, with the two types representing commercial poultry farms and backyard poultry flocks. The analyses were aimed at estimation of the susceptibility (g) and infectiousness (f) of backyard flocks relative to commercial farms. The results show that backyard flocks were considerably less susceptible to infection than commercial farms (g = 0.014; 95%CI = 0.0071-0.023), while estimates of the relative infectiousness of backyard flocks varied widely (0 < or = f < or =5). Our results indicate that, from an epidemiological perspective, backyard flocks played a marginal role in the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza in the Netherlands in 2003.