Screening for abdominal aortic aneurysm in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease

Aims Declining prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) might force a more targeted screening approach (high-risk populations only) in order to maintain (cost-)effectiveness. We aimed to determine temporal changes in the prevalence of screening-detected AAA, to assess AAA-related surgery, and evaluate all-cause mortality in patients with manifest vascular disease. Methods We included patients with manifest vascular disease but without a history of AAA enrolled in the ongoing and results single-centre prospective UCC-SMART cohort study. Patients were screened at baseline for AAA by abdominal ultrasonography. We calculated sex- and age-specific prevalence of AAA, probability of survival in relation to the presence of AAA, and the proportion of patients undergoing AAA-related surgery. Prevalence of screening-detected AAA in 5440 screened men was 2.5% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1–2.9%] and in 1983 screened women 0.7% (95% CI 0.4–1.1%). Prevalence declined from 1997 until 2017 in men aged 70–79 years from 8.1% to 3.2% and in men aged 60–69 years from 5.7% to 1.0%. 36% of patients with screening-detected AAA received elective AAA-related surgery during follow-up (median time until surgery = 5.3 years, interquartile range 2.5–9.1). Patients with screening-detected AAA had a lower probability of survival (sex and age adjusted) compared to patients without screening-detected AAA (51%, 95% CI 41–64% vs. 69%, 95% CI 68–71%) after 15 years of follow-up. Conclusion The prevalence of screening-detected AAA has declined over the period 1997–2017 in men with vascular disease but exceeds prevalence in already established screening programs targeting 65-year-old men. Screening for AAA in patients with vascular disease may be cost-effective, but this remains to be determined.