TY - JOUR
T1 - SCORE2-Diabetes
T2 - 10-year cardiovascular risk estimation in type 2 diabetes in Europe
AU - Pennells, Lisa
AU - Kaptoge, Stephen
AU - Østergaard, Helena Bleken
AU - Read, Stephanie H.
AU - Carinci, Fabrizio
AU - Franch-Nadal, Josep
AU - Petitjean, Carmen
AU - Taylor, Owen
AU - Hageman, Steven H.J.
AU - Xu, Zhe
AU - Shi, Fanchao
AU - Spackman, Sarah
AU - Gualdi, Stefano
AU - Holman, Naomi
AU - Da Providencia E Costa, Rui Bebiano
AU - Bonnet, Fabrice
AU - Brenner, Hermann
AU - Gillum, Richard F.
AU - Kiechl, Stefan
AU - Lawlor, Deborah A.
AU - Potier, Louis
AU - Schöttker, Ben
AU - Sofat, Reecha
AU - Völzke, Henry
AU - Willeit, Johann
AU - Baltane, Zane
AU - Fava, Stephen
AU - Janos, Sandor
AU - Lavens, Astrid
AU - Pildava, Santa
AU - Poljicanin, Tamara
AU - Pristas, Ivan
AU - Rossing, Peter
AU - Sascha, Reiff
AU - Scheidt-Nave, Christa
AU - Stotl, Iztok
AU - Tibor, Gail
AU - Urbančič-Rovan, Vilma
AU - Vanherwegen, An Sofie
AU - Vistisen, Dorte
AU - Du, Yong
AU - Walker, Matthew R.
AU - Willeit, Peter
AU - Ference, Brian
AU - De Bacquer, Dirk
AU - Halle, Martin
AU - Huculeci, Radu
AU - Mcevoy, John William
AU - Timmis, Adam
AU - Vardas, Panagiotis
AU - Dorresteijn, Jannick A.N.
AU - Graham, Ian
AU - Wood, Angela
AU - Eliasson, Björn
AU - Herrington, William
AU - Danesh, John
AU - Mauricio, Dídac
AU - Benedetti, Massimo Massi
AU - Sattar, Naveed
AU - Visseren, Frank L.J.
AU - Wild, Sarah
AU - Di Angelantonio, Emanuele
AU - Balkau, Beverley
AU - Fumeron, Frederic
AU - Stocker, Hannah
AU - Holleczek, Bernd
AU - Schipf, Sabine
AU - Schmidt, Carsten Oliver
AU - Dörr, Marcus
AU - Tilg, Herbert
AU - Leitner, Christoph
AU - Notdurfter, Marlene
AU - Taylor, Julie
AU - Dale, Caroline
AU - Prieto-Merino, David
AU - Buble, Tamara
AU - Ivanko, Pero
AU - Carstensen, Bendix
AU - Heidemann, Christin
AU - Lepiksone, Jana
AU - Magri, Caroline J.
AU - Azzopardi, Joseph
AU - Real, Jordi
AU - Vlacho, Bogdan
AU - Mata-Cases, Manel
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was supported by Health Data Research UK, which is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), British Heart Foundation, and Wellcome.
Funding Information:
We acknowledge with gratitude the people with diabetes, NHS staff and organisations (the Scottish Care Information-Diabetes Steering Group, the Scottish Diabetes Group, the Scottish Diabetes Survey Group, the diabetes managed clinical networks) involved in providing data, setting up, maintaining and overseeing collation of data for people with diabetes in Scotland. Data linkage was performed by Public Health Scotland. The Scottish Diabetes Research Network is supported by National Health Service (NHS) Research Scotland, a partnership involving Scottish NHS Boards and the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government
Funding Information:
The ERFC co-ordinating centre was underpinned by programme grants from the British Heart Foundation (SP/09/002; RG/13/13/30194; RG/18/13/33946), BHF Centre of Research Excellence (RE/18/1/34212), the UK Medical Research Council (MR/L003120/1), and the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC-1215–20014; NIHR203312), with project-specific support received from the UK NIHR [*], British United Provident Association (BUPA) Foundation and an unrestricted educational grant from GlaxoSmithKline. A variety of funding sources have supported recruitment, follow-up, and laboratory measurements in the studies contributing data to the ERFC, which are listed on the ERFC website ( www.phpc.cam.ac.uk/ceu/erfc/list-of-studies ).
Funding Information:
Conflict of interest A.W. reports institutional grants from an Alan Turing Institute, British Heart Foundation, NIHR, and Innovative Medicines Initiative. A.T. reports receiving payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events made to him from European Heart Journal: Quality of Care and Clinical Outcomes for being an Editor, reports leadership or fiduciary role in other board, society, committee or advocacy group, paid or unpaid, for being a member of Trial Steering Committees for SCOT HEART 2 and DUAL ACS 2, and reports owning two shares in two start-up companies called HD Clinical and RE-COGNITION Health Ltd. B.A.F. reports grants or contracts from Novartis, Amgen, Pfizer and Esperion, consulting fees from Novartis, Amgen, Regeneron, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, Merck, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Viatris, Novo Nordisk, New Amsterdam, Mylan, Daiichi Sankyo, Ionis Pharmaceuticals, dalCOR, CiVi Pharmaceuticals, KrKa Pharmaceuticals, American College of Cardiology, European Atherosclerosis Society and European Society of Cardiology, payments or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from Novartis, Amgen, Regeneron, Eli Lilly, Sanofi, Merck, AstraZeneca, Pfizer, Viatris, Novo, Nordisk, New Amsterdam, Mylan, Daiichi Sankyo, Ionis Pharmaceuticals and dalCOR, patents planned, issued or pending from Novartis, Amgen, Regeneron, Sanofi, Merck, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk and New Amsterdam, and participation on a Data Safety Monitoring Board or Advisory Board for Novartis, Amgen, Regeneron, Sanofi, Merck, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk and New Amsterdam. B.E. reports institutional unrestricted research support to institution from Konung Gustaf V:s och Drottning Victorias Frimurarestiftelse, consulting fees from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, Mundipharma, AMGEN, AstraZeneca and MSD, and payments or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Eli Lilly, Boehringer Ingelheim, Mundipharma, AstraZeneca and MSD.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.
PY - 2023/7/21
Y1 - 2023/7/21
N2 - Aims: To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe. Methods and results: SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals' levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively. Conclusion: SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
AB - Aims: To develop and validate a recalibrated prediction model (SCORE2-Diabetes) to estimate the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in individuals with type 2 diabetes in Europe. Methods and results: SCORE2-Diabetes was developed by extending SCORE2 algorithms using individual-participant data from four large-scale datasets comprising 229 460 participants (43 706 CVD events) with type 2 diabetes and without previous CVD. Sex-specific competing risk-adjusted models were used including conventional risk factors (i.e. age, smoking, systolic blood pressure, total, and HDL-cholesterol), as well as diabetes-related variables (i.e. age at diabetes diagnosis, glycated haemoglobin [HbA1c] and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR]). Models were recalibrated to CVD incidence in four European risk regions. External validation included 217 036 further individuals (38 602 CVD events), and showed good discrimination, and improvement over SCORE2 (C-index change from 0.009 to 0.031). Regional calibration was satisfactory. SCORE2-Diabetes risk predictions varied several-fold, depending on individuals' levels of diabetes-related factors. For example, in the moderate-risk region, the estimated 10-year CVD risk was 11% for a 60-year-old man, non-smoker, with type 2 diabetes, average conventional risk factors, HbA1c of 50 mmol/mol, eGFR of 90 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 60 years. By contrast, the estimated risk was 17% in a similar man, with HbA1c of 70 mmol/mol, eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, and age at diabetes diagnosis of 50 years. For a woman with the same characteristics, the risk was 8% and 13%, respectively. Conclusion: SCORE2-Diabetes, a new algorithm developed, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of CVD in individuals with type 2 diabetes, enhances identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
KW - Cardiovascular diseases
KW - Diabetes
KW - Prediction model
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85165521540&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/eurheartj/ehad260
DO - 10.1093/eurheartj/ehad260
M3 - Article
C2 - 37247330
AN - SCOPUS:85165521540
SN - 0195-668X
VL - 44
SP - 2544
EP - 2556
JO - European heart journal
JF - European heart journal
IS - 28
ER -