TY - JOUR
T1 - Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in the Asia-Pacific region
T2 - The SCORE2 Asia-Pacific model
AU - Abdullah, Noraidatulakma
AU - Abdul Jalal, Muhammad Irfan
AU - Barr, Elizabeth L.M.
AU - Chamnan, Parinya
AU - Chong, Chean Lin
AU - Cuenza, Lucky
AU - Gao, Pei
AU - Graham, Ian
AU - Hilal, Saima
AU - Holtrop, Joris
AU - Jamal, Rahman
AU - Kalhan, Tosha Ashish
AU - Kaneko, Hidehiro
AU - Lee, Chi Ho
AU - Lim, Charlie G.Y.
AU - Liu, Xiaofei
AU - Magliano, Dianna J.
AU - Motamed, Nima
AU - Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar
AU - Ong, Sok King
AU - Perera, Ruwanthi
AU - Prasad, Kameshwar
AU - Shaw, Jonathan E.
AU - De Silva, Janaka
AU - Sim, Xueling
AU - Suzuki, Yuta
AU - Tan, Kathryn C.B.
AU - Tang, Xun
AU - Venkataraman, Kavita
AU - Wickremasinghe, Rajitha
AU - Yasunaga, Hideo
AU - Zamani, Farhad
AU - Hageman, Steven H.J.
AU - Huang, Zijuan
AU - Lee, Hokyou
AU - Kaptoge, Stephen
AU - Dorresteijn, Jannick A.N.
AU - Pennells, Lisa
AU - Di Angelantonio, Emanuele
AU - Visseren, Frank L.J.
AU - Kim, Hyeon Chang
AU - Johar, Sofian
AU - Di Angelantonio, Emanuele
AU - Papadakis, Michael
AU - Timmis, Adam
AU - Aboyans, Victor
AU - Vardas, Panos
AU - McEvoy, John William
AU - Kavousi, Maryam
AU - Ferrieres, Jean
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 the European Society of Cardiology, the Asian Pacific Society of Cardiology, and the ASEAN (Association of South-East Asian Nations) Federation of Cardiology.
PY - 2025/2/21
Y1 - 2025/2/21
N2 - Background and Aims: To improve upon the estimation of 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) event risk for individuals without prior CVD or diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region by systematic recalibration of the SCORE2 risk algorithm. Methods: The sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted SCORE2 algorithms were systematically recalibrated to reflect CVD incidence observed in four Asia-Pacific risk regions, defined according to country-level World Health Organization age- and sex-standardized CVD mortality rates. Using the same approach as applied for the original SCORE2 models, recalibration to each risk region was completed using expected CVD incidence and risk factor distributions from each region. Results: Risk region-specific CVD incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 8 405 574 individuals (556 421 CVD events). For external validation, data from 9 560 266 individuals without previous CVD or diabetes were analysed in 13 prospective studies from 12 countries (350 550 incident CVD events). The pooled C-index of the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms in the external validation datasets was. 710 [95% confidence interval (CI). 677-.744]. Cohort-specific C-indices ranged from. 605 (95% CI. 597-.613) to. 840 (95% CI. 771-.909). Estimated CVD risk varied several-fold across Asia-Pacific risk regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old non-smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 7% for men in low-risk countries to 14% for men in very-high-risk countries, and from 3% for women in low-risk countries to 13% for women in very-high-risk countries. Conclusions: The SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms have been calibrated to estimate 10-year risk of CVD for apparently healthy people in Asia and Oceania, thereby enhancing the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across the Asia-Pacific region.
AB - Background and Aims: To improve upon the estimation of 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) event risk for individuals without prior CVD or diabetes mellitus in the Asia-Pacific region by systematic recalibration of the SCORE2 risk algorithm. Methods: The sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted SCORE2 algorithms were systematically recalibrated to reflect CVD incidence observed in four Asia-Pacific risk regions, defined according to country-level World Health Organization age- and sex-standardized CVD mortality rates. Using the same approach as applied for the original SCORE2 models, recalibration to each risk region was completed using expected CVD incidence and risk factor distributions from each region. Results: Risk region-specific CVD incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 8 405 574 individuals (556 421 CVD events). For external validation, data from 9 560 266 individuals without previous CVD or diabetes were analysed in 13 prospective studies from 12 countries (350 550 incident CVD events). The pooled C-index of the SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms in the external validation datasets was. 710 [95% confidence interval (CI). 677-.744]. Cohort-specific C-indices ranged from. 605 (95% CI. 597-.613) to. 840 (95% CI. 771-.909). Estimated CVD risk varied several-fold across Asia-Pacific risk regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old non-smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 7% for men in low-risk countries to 14% for men in very-high-risk countries, and from 3% for women in low-risk countries to 13% for women in very-high-risk countries. Conclusions: The SCORE2 Asia-Pacific algorithms have been calibrated to estimate 10-year risk of CVD for apparently healthy people in Asia and Oceania, thereby enhancing the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across the Asia-Pacific region.
KW - Cardiovascular disease
KW - Primary prevention
KW - Risk prediction
KW - Ten-year CVD risk
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85218979490&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1093/eurheartj/ehae609
DO - 10.1093/eurheartj/ehae609
M3 - Article
C2 - 39217477
AN - SCOPUS:85218979490
SN - 0195-668X
VL - 46
SP - 702
EP - 715
JO - European heart journal
JF - European heart journal
IS - 8
ER -