Prognostic value of ultrasound tissue characterisation for a recurrence of mid-portion Achilles tendinopathy in military service members: A prospective cohort study

Introduction Tendon structure in mid-portion Achilles tendinopathy (mid-AT) appears poorly associated with symptoms. Yet, degenerative tendon changes on imaging have been associated with an increased risk of mid-AT. We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of ultrasound tissue characterisation (UTC) for a mid-AT recurrence in service members reporting to be recovered following standard care. Methods Mid-portion aligned fibrillar structure was quantified post-treatment in 37 participants. Recurrences were determined after 1 year of follow-up, based on self-perceived recurrence (yes/no) combined with a decrease in post-treatment Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Achilles score of at least the minimal important change of 7 points. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were used to determine a threshold for dichotomisation of outcomes for aligned fibrillar structure (normal representation/under-representation). Using multivariable logistic regression, the association between a mid-AT recurrence (yes/no) and the dichotomised aligned fibrillar structure was determined. Results Eight participants (22%) experienced a recurrence. The threshold for aligned fibrillar structure was set at 73.2% (95% CI: 69.4% to 77.8%) according to Youden's index. Values below this threshold were significantly associated with a mid-AT recurrence (odds ratio (OR) 9.7, 95% CI: 1.007 to 93.185). The OR for a mid-AT recurrence was 1.1 (95% CI: 1.002 to 1.150) for each additional month of symptom duration. The explained variance of our multivariable logistic regression model was 0.423; symptom duration appeared to be a better predictor than aligned fibrillar structure. Conclusions This study identified mid-portion aligned fibrillar structure and symptom duration as potential prognostic factors for a mid-AT recurrence in military service members. The threshold for aligned fibrillar structure of 73.2% can guide preventative interventions (eg, training load adjustments or additional tendon load programmes) aiming to improve tendon structure to minimise the future recurrence risk.