Abstract
Essentials The widely recommended CHA2DS2-VASc shows conflicting results in contemporary validation studies. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of 19 studies validating CHA2DS2-VASc. There was high heterogeneity in stroke risks for different CHA2DS2-VASc scores. This was not explained by differences between setting of care, or by performing meta-regression. Summary: Background The CHA2DS2-VASc decision rule is widely recommended for estimating stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), although validation studies show ambiguous and conflicting results. Objectives To: (i) review existing studies validating CHA2DS2-VASc in AF patients who are not (yet) anticoagulated; (ii) meta-analyze estimates of stroke risk per score; and (iii) explore sources of heterogeneity across the validation studies. Methods We performed a systematic literature review and random effects meta-analysis of studies externally validating CHA2DS2-VASc in AF patients not receiving anticoagulants. To explore between-study heterogeneity in stroke risk, we stratified studies to the clinical setting in which patient enrollment started, and performed meta-regression. Results In total, 19 studies were evaluated, with over two million person-years of follow-up. In studies recruiting AF patients in hospitals, stroke risks for scores of 0, 1 and 2 were 0.4% (approximate 95% prediction interval [PI] 0.2–3.2%), 1.2% (95% PI 0.1–3.8%), and 2.2% (95% PI 0.03–7.8%), respectively. These were consistently higher than those in studies recruiting patients from the open general population, with risks of 0.2% (95% PI 0.0–0.9%), 0.7% (95% PI 0.3–1.2%) and 1.5% (95% PI 0.4–3.3%) for scores of 0, 1, and 2, respectively. Heterogeneity, as reflected by the wide PIs, could not be fully explained by meta-regression. Conclusions Studies validating CHA2DS2-VASc show high heterogeneity in predicted stroke risks for different scores.
Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 1065-1077 |
Number of pages | 13 |
Journal | Journal of Thrombosis and Haemostasis |
Volume | 15 |
Issue number | 6 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 1 Jun 2017 |
Keywords
- CHA2DS2-VASc
- atrial fibrillation
- clinical prediction rule
- meta-analysis
- systematic review