Predicting Successful Catheter Drainage in Patients with Pancreatic Fistula after Pancreatoduodenectomy

F. Jasmijn Smits, Hjalmar C. Van Santvoort, Marc G. Besselink, Djamila Boerma, Olivier R. Busch, Ronald M. Van Dam, Casper H. Van Eijck, Sebastiaan Festen, Erwin Van Der Harst, Ignace H. De Hingh, Koert P. De Jong, Inne H. Borel Rinkes, I. Quintus Molenaar*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to identify predictors for successful minimally invasive catheter drainage (ie, survival without relaparotomy) for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy.

METHODS: Included were consecutive patients undergoing catheter drainage as first intervention for pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy (2005-2013) in 9 Dutch centers. Possible prognostic factors for successful catheter drainage (ie, survival without relaparotomy) were selected using Akaike information criterion.

RESULTS: Included were 227 patients after 2196 pancreatoduodenectomies. Primary catheter drainage was successful in 175 (77%) of 227 patients. Multivariable logistic regression revealed the following negative prognostic factors for success: male sex (odds ratio [OR], 0.46; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21-1.00; P = 0.049), higher age (for every 5 years over 50; OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.57-0.84; P < 0.001), and respiratory failure at time of catheter drainage (OR, 0.10; 95% CI, 0.03-0.33; P < 0.001). A prognostic model incorporating these factors yielded an area under the curve of 0.76 and demonstrated a success range of 98% to 14%.

CONCLUSIONS: Male sex, higher age, and respiratory failure are associated with a low success rate of catheter drainage in patients with pancreatic fistula after pancreatoduodenectomy. These patients might benefit from an intensified postoperative monitoring for early detection and management of pancreatic fistula to prevent respiratory failure.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)811-816
Number of pages6
Issue number6
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2019


  • amylase
  • complication management
  • multicenter
  • pancreatic carcinoma
  • pancreatic leakage
  • Postoperative Complications/prevention & control
  • Age Factors
  • Drainage/methods
  • Humans
  • Middle Aged
  • Risk Factors
  • Length of Stay/statistics & numerical data
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Catheters
  • Pancreatic Fistula/diagnosis
  • Pancreaticoduodenectomy/methods
  • Nomograms
  • Sex Factors
  • Female
  • Aged


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