Predicting pathological fracture in femoral metastases using a clinical CT scan based algorithm: A case–control study

Background: We assessed whether there was a difference in attenuation measurements (in Hounsfield units – HU) and geometric distribution of HU between femora with metastatic lesions that fracture, and metastatic lesions that did not fracture nor underwent prophylactic fixation. Methods: Nine patients with femoral metastases who underwent CT and developed a pathological fracture were matched to controls. All femora were delineated in axial CT slices using a region of interest (ROI) tool; the HU within these ROIs were used to calculate: (1) the cumulative HU of the affected over the nonaffected side per slice and presented as a percentage, and (2) the cumulative HU accounting for geometric distribution (polar moment of HU). We repeated the analyses including cortical bone only (HU of 600 and above). Results: CT-based calculations did not differ between patients with a lesion that fractured and those that did not fracture nor underwent prophylactic fixation when analyzing all tissue. However, when including cortical bone only, the pathological fracture group had a lower cumulative HU value compared to the no fracture and no fixation group for the weakest cross-sectional CT image (pathological fracture group, mean: 71, SD: 23 and no fracture and no prophylactic fixation group, mean: 85, SD: 18, p = 0.042) and the complete lesion analysis (pathological fracture group, mean: 78, SD: 21 and no fracture and no prophylactic fixation group, mean: 92, SD: 15, p = 0.032). Conclusion: The demonstrated CT-based algorithms can be useful for predicting pathological fractures in metastatic lesions.