TY - JOUR
T1 - Predicting 10-year risk of recurrent cardiovascular events andcardiovascular interventions in patients with established cardiovascular disease
T2 - results from UCC-SMART and REACH
AU - Klooster, C. C.van t.
AU - Bhatt, D. L.
AU - Steg, P. G.
AU - Massaro, J. M.
AU - Dorresteijn, J. A.N.
AU - Westerink, J.
AU - Ruigrok, Y. M.
AU - de Borst, G. J.
AU - Asselbergs, F. W.
AU - van der Graaf, Y.
AU - Visseren, F. L.J.
N1 - Funding Information:
F.W. Asselberg is supported by UCL Hospitals NIHR Biomedical Research Centre.
Funding Information:
The UCC-SMART study was financially supported by a grant of the University Medical Center Utrecht , the Netherlands. The REACH Registry was supported by Sanofi-Aventis and Bristol-Myers Squibb and is endorsed by the World Heart Federation. For the present study, the above supporting sources had no involvement in study design, analysis, interpretation, writing of the results, or the decision to submit for publication.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors
PY - 2021/2/15
Y1 - 2021/2/15
N2 - Background: Existing cardiovascular risk scores for patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) estimate residual risk of recurrent major cardiovascular events (MACE). The aim of the current study is to develop and externally validate a prediction model to estimate the 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions (MACE+) in patients with established CVD. Methods: Data of patients with established CVD from the UCC-SMART cohort (N = 8421) were used for model development, and patient data from REACH Western Europe (N = 14,528) and REACH North America (N = 19,495) for model validation. Predictors were selected based on the existing SMART risk score. A Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted 10-year risk model was developed for the combined outcome MACE+. The model was validated in all patients and in strata of coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), peripheral artery disease (PAD). Results: External calibration for 2-year risk in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America was good, c-statistics were moderate: 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. In strata of CVD at baseline good external calibration was observed in patients with CHD and CeVD, however, poor calibration was seen in patients with PAD. C-statistics for patients with CHD were 0.60 and 0.57, for patients with CeVD 0.62 and 0.61, and for patients with PAD 0.53 and 0.54 in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America, respectively. Conclusions: The 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions can be estimated in patients with established CHD or CeVD. However, cardiovascular interventions in patients with PAD could not be predicted reliably.
AB - Background: Existing cardiovascular risk scores for patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) estimate residual risk of recurrent major cardiovascular events (MACE). The aim of the current study is to develop and externally validate a prediction model to estimate the 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions (MACE+) in patients with established CVD. Methods: Data of patients with established CVD from the UCC-SMART cohort (N = 8421) were used for model development, and patient data from REACH Western Europe (N = 14,528) and REACH North America (N = 19,495) for model validation. Predictors were selected based on the existing SMART risk score. A Fine and Gray competing risk-adjusted 10-year risk model was developed for the combined outcome MACE+. The model was validated in all patients and in strata of coronary heart disease (CHD), cerebrovascular disease (CeVD), peripheral artery disease (PAD). Results: External calibration for 2-year risk in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America was good, c-statistics were moderate: 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. In strata of CVD at baseline good external calibration was observed in patients with CHD and CeVD, however, poor calibration was seen in patients with PAD. C-statistics for patients with CHD were 0.60 and 0.57, for patients with CeVD 0.62 and 0.61, and for patients with PAD 0.53 and 0.54 in REACH Western Europe and REACH North America, respectively. Conclusions: The 10-year combined risk of recurrent MACE and cardiovascular interventions can be estimated in patients with established CHD or CeVD. However, cardiovascular interventions in patients with PAD could not be predicted reliably.
KW - Cardiovascular interventions
KW - Major cardiovascular events
KW - Patients with established cardiovascular disease
KW - Risk prediction
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85091933899&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijcard.2020.09.053
DO - 10.1016/j.ijcard.2020.09.053
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:85091933899
SN - 0167-5273
VL - 325
SP - 140
EP - 148
JO - International Journal of Cardiology
JF - International Journal of Cardiology
ER -