TY - JOUR
T1 - Patterns of SARS-CoV-2 circulation revealed by a nationwide sewage surveillance programme, the Netherlands, August 2020 to February 2022
AU - van Boven, Michiel
AU - Hetebrij, Wouter A.
AU - Swart, Arno
AU - Nagelkerke, Erwin
AU - van der Beek, Rudolf F.H.J.
AU - Stouten, Sjors
AU - Hoogeveen, Rudolf T.
AU - Miura, Fuminari
AU - Kloosterman, Astrid
AU - van der Drift, Anne Merel R.
AU - Welling, Anne
AU - Lodder, Willemijn J.
AU - de Roda Husman, Ana Maria
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). All rights reserved.
PY - 2023/6/22
Y1 - 2023/6/22
N2 - Background: Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater offers a near real-time tool to track circulation of SARS-CoV-2 at a local scale. However, individual measurements of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage are noisy, inherently variable and can be left-censored. Aim: We aimed to infer latent virus loads in a comprehensive sewage surveillance programme that includes all sewage treatment plants (STPs) in the Netherlands and covers 99.6% of the Dutch population. Methods: We applied a multilevel Bayesian penalised spline model to estimate time- and STP-specific virus loads based on water flow-adjusted SARS-CoV-2 qRTPCR data for one to four sewage samples per week for each of the more than 300 STPs. Results: The model captured the epidemic upsurges and downturns in the Netherlands, despite substantial day-to-day variation in the measurements. Estimated STP virus loads varied by more than two orders of magnitude, from ca 1012 virus particles per 100,000 persons per day in the epidemic trough in August 2020 to almost 1015 per 100,000 in many STPs in January 2022. The timing of epidemics at the local level was slightly shifted between STPs and municipalities, which resulted in less pronounced peaks and troughs at the national level. Conclusion: Although substantial day-to-day variation is observed in virus load measurements, wastewaterbased surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 that is performed at high sampling frequency can track long-term progression of an epidemic at a local scale in near real time.
AB - Background: Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater offers a near real-time tool to track circulation of SARS-CoV-2 at a local scale. However, individual measurements of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage are noisy, inherently variable and can be left-censored. Aim: We aimed to infer latent virus loads in a comprehensive sewage surveillance programme that includes all sewage treatment plants (STPs) in the Netherlands and covers 99.6% of the Dutch population. Methods: We applied a multilevel Bayesian penalised spline model to estimate time- and STP-specific virus loads based on water flow-adjusted SARS-CoV-2 qRTPCR data for one to four sewage samples per week for each of the more than 300 STPs. Results: The model captured the epidemic upsurges and downturns in the Netherlands, despite substantial day-to-day variation in the measurements. Estimated STP virus loads varied by more than two orders of magnitude, from ca 1012 virus particles per 100,000 persons per day in the epidemic trough in August 2020 to almost 1015 per 100,000 in many STPs in January 2022. The timing of epidemics at the local level was slightly shifted between STPs and municipalities, which resulted in less pronounced peaks and troughs at the national level. Conclusion: Although substantial day-to-day variation is observed in virus load measurements, wastewaterbased surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 that is performed at high sampling frequency can track long-term progression of an epidemic at a local scale in near real time.
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85164040417
U2 - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.25.2200700
DO - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2023.28.25.2200700
M3 - Article
C2 - 37347416
AN - SCOPUS:85164040417
SN - 1025-496X
VL - 28
JO - Eurosurveillance
JF - Eurosurveillance
IS - 25
ER -