No Evidence for an Association of HIV and Antiviral Treatment With Changes in Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score in the Ndlovu Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been associated with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in high-income countries. The authors studied the longitudinal association between HIV and ART and nonlaboratory Framingham Risk Score (FRS) in a middle-income country. METHODS AND RESULTS: This longitudinal analysis of the NCS (Ndlovu Cohort Study), South Africa used baseline to 36-month follow-up data. Demographics, HIV, ART status, and cardiometabolic measures were obtained. FRS was used as a CVD risk measure. Through linear mixed models, FRS trends over time and the association with HIV were studied. Analysis included 1136 participants, with 609 (54%) having HIV, and 495 (81%) taking ART. At baseline, 9.8% of participants had a high FRS. People living with HIV (PLHIV) had a 3.2% lower FRS than HIV-negative participants (P<0.001). FRS increased similarly for both groups over time. Other factors associated with FRS were secondary and higher education (ß value: -0.075, P<0.001; ß value: -0.084, P<0.001) and alcohol consumption (ß value: 0.011, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CVD risk increased for all participants over 36 months, suggesting classic risk factors rather than HIV status or ART to be drivers of CVD risk. People living with HIV had a significantly lower FRS than their HIV-negative counterparts, possibly related to HIV itself or a more frequent interaction with healthcare services. No association of HIV and ART with changes in FRS over 36 months was observed, suggesting the need for research using clinical endpoints to elucidate the effects of HIV and ART on CVD risk. Population-based prevention of CVD risk factors in sub-Saharan Africa is warranted, regardless of HIV status.