TY - JOUR
T1 - Misuse of the sign test in narrative synthesis of evidence
AU - Nikolakopoulos, Stavros
N1 - Funding Information:
The author has received financial support from the COMPAR‐EU project (Comparing effectiveness of self‐management interventions in 4 high priority chronic diseases in Europe), H2020 ‐ Grant agreement 754936 as well as from the DRASI‐II funding scheme, Athens University of Economics and Business, project “Bayesian Variable Selection for Network Meta Analysis.” I would like to thank Dimitris Mavridis for his comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.
Funding Information:
The author has received financial support from the COMPAR-EU project (Comparing effectiveness of self-management interventions in 4 high priority chronic diseases in Europe), H2020 - Grant agreement 754936 as well as from the DRASI-II funding scheme, Athens University of Economics and Business, project ?Bayesian Variable Selection for Network Meta Analysis.? I would like to thank Dimitris Mavridis for his comments on an earlier version of the manuscript.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
PY - 2020/9
Y1 - 2020/9
N2 - In narrative synthesis of evidence, it can be the case that the only quantitative measures available concerning the efficacy of an intervention is the direction of the effect, that is, whether it is positive or negative. In such situations, the sign test has been proposed in the literature and in recent Cochrane guidelines as a way to test whether the proportion of positive effects is favorable. I argue that the sign test is inappropriate in this context as the data are not generated according to the binomial distribution it employs. I demonstrate possible consequences for both hypothesis testing and estimation via hypothetical examples.
AB - In narrative synthesis of evidence, it can be the case that the only quantitative measures available concerning the efficacy of an intervention is the direction of the effect, that is, whether it is positive or negative. In such situations, the sign test has been proposed in the literature and in recent Cochrane guidelines as a way to test whether the proportion of positive effects is favorable. I argue that the sign test is inappropriate in this context as the data are not generated according to the binomial distribution it employs. I demonstrate possible consequences for both hypothesis testing and estimation via hypothetical examples.
KW - binomial distribution
KW - narrative synthesis
KW - Poisson-binomial distribution
KW - sign test
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85087896277&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1002/jrsm.1427
DO - 10.1002/jrsm.1427
M3 - Article
C2 - 32533787
AN - SCOPUS:85087896277
SN - 1759-2879
VL - 11
SP - 714
EP - 719
JO - Research Synthesis Methods
JF - Research Synthesis Methods
IS - 5
ER -