Meta-analysis of placebo rates in major depressive disorder trials

BACKGROUND: Placebo effects in major depressive disorder (MDD) have received much interest in the medical literature. However, few quantitative analyses have been done in homogeneous populations. OBJECTIVE: To determine efficacy rates for placebo in patients with MDD; to quantify the correlation between efficacy and publication year, as well as between placebo and drug response rates. DESIGN: Searching MEDLINE (1966-December 2000), EMBASE (1998-February 2001), HealthSTAR (1975-December 2000), and Cochrane (1980-December 2000) databases, randomized, placebo-controlled trials were retrieved including patients with MDD as defined by Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 3rd and 4th editions criteria, Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression score ≥18 or Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale score ≥16, reporting successes as 50% decreases in scores after 6-8 weeks of treatment. Response rates were summarized using a random effects meta-analysis for per protocol (PP) and intent-to-treat (ITT) results. RESULTS: We included 24 of 134 potential studies examining 4459 patients, 1786 on placebo and 2673 on an antidepressant. Placebo response rates were 45.5% (PP) and 26.9% (ITT). Correlations were significant between year and rates (PP rho 0.448, p = 0.042; ITT rho 0.557; p = 0.006), but not for active drugs. Placebo and drug rates were correlated (PP r 0.397, p = 0.020; ITT r 0.539; p = 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: These placebo rates confirm those reported previously, but were from a homogeneous population. Although statistically significant, the correlation between drug and placebo rates was lower than others reported. During the study period, placebo rates increased linearly; active drugs did not. Correlations between placebo and drug response rates reflected moderate to strong effect sizes. We suggest that current methodology has been unsuccessful in achieving unbiased double-blind conditions not influenced by extra-trial factors, including time.