Mechanics of pandemics

Seba Contreras; Philipp Dönges; Laura Müller; Piklu Mallick; Sydney Paltra; Ulrik Hvid; Robyn J.N. Kettlitz; Andreas Reitenbach; Rodrigo Amaral Lind; Maíra Aguiar; Philip Bechtle; André Calero Valdez; Ronja Gronemeyer; Manuela Harries; Veronika K. Jaeger; André Karch; Carolina J. Klett-Tammen; Peter Klimek; Mirjam E. Kretzschmar; Kai Nagel; Bjarke Frost Nielsen; Barbara Prainsack; Isabella M. Radhuber; Lone Simonsen; Kim Sneppen; Janik Suer; Viola Priesemann

doi:10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104101

Mechanics of pandemics

Seba Contreras^*
, Philipp Dönges
, Laura Müller
, Piklu Mallick
, Sydney Paltra
, Ulrik Hvid
, Robyn J.N. Kettlitz
, Andreas Reitenbach
, Rodrigo Amaral Lind
, Maíra Aguiar
, Philip Bechtle
, André Calero Valdez
, Ronja Gronemeyer
, Manuela Harries
, Veronika K. Jaeger
, André Karch
, Carolina J. Klett-Tammen
, Peter Klimek
, Mirjam E. Kretzschmar
, Kai Nagel

Bjarke Frost Nielsen, Barbara Prainsack, Isabella M. Radhuber, Lone Simonsen, Kim Sneppen, Janik Suer, Viola Priesemann^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article › peer-review

Abstract

COVID-19 and previous pandemics have shown how diseases can disrupt, threaten, and transform daily life. Since pathogens and societies are continuously evolving, every pandemic is different. However, certain fundamental principles of disease transmission appear to hold true across different outbreaks. These “mechanisms” are grounded in natural laws or the very structure of our biology and societies. This paper compiles ten fundamental mechanisms, curated by a multidisciplinary team with backgrounds spanning public health, medicine, epidemiology, political science, mathematics, physics, and psychology. These mechanisms, although perhaps underappreciated, substantially shape how pandemics unfold and are controlled. The better we succeed in understanding these mechanisms and establishing this knowledge in our societies, the better we will be able to prepare for future pandemics and respond appropriately when they occur.

Original language	English
Article number	104101
Journal	EClinicalMedicine
Volume	98
Early online date	31 Jul 2026
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104101
Publication status	Published - Aug 2026

Keywords

Behavioral epidemiology
Causal models
Infectious disease control
Mathematical modeling
Pandemic preparedness
Transmission dynamics

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10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104101Licence: CC BY

PIIS2589537026003548Final published version, 0.99 MBLicence: CC BY

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Contreras, S., Dönges, P., Müller, L., Mallick, P., Paltra, S., Hvid, U., Kettlitz, R. J. N., Reitenbach, A., Lind, R. A., Aguiar, M., Bechtle, P., Valdez, A. C., Gronemeyer, R., Harries, M., Jaeger, V. K., Karch, A., Klett-Tammen, C. J., Klimek, P., Kretzschmar, M. E., ... Priesemann, V. (2026). Mechanics of pandemics. EClinicalMedicine, 98, Article 104101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104101

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title = "Mechanics of pandemics",

abstract = "COVID-19 and previous pandemics have shown how diseases can disrupt, threaten, and transform daily life. Since pathogens and societies are continuously evolving, every pandemic is different. However, certain fundamental principles of disease transmission appear to hold true across different outbreaks. These {\textquotedblleft}mechanisms{\textquotedblright} are grounded in natural laws or the very structure of our biology and societies. This paper compiles ten fundamental mechanisms, curated by a multidisciplinary team with backgrounds spanning public health, medicine, epidemiology, political science, mathematics, physics, and psychology. These mechanisms, although perhaps underappreciated, substantially shape how pandemics unfold and are controlled. The better we succeed in understanding these mechanisms and establishing this knowledge in our societies, the better we will be able to prepare for future pandemics and respond appropriately when they occur.",

keywords = "Behavioral epidemiology, Causal models, Infectious disease control, Mathematical modeling, Pandemic preparedness, Transmission dynamics",

author = "Seba Contreras and Philipp D{\"o}nges and Laura M{\"u}ller and Piklu Mallick and Sydney Paltra and Ulrik Hvid and Kettlitz, \{Robyn J.N.\} and Andreas Reitenbach and Lind, \{Rodrigo Amaral\} and Ma{\'i}ra Aguiar and Philip Bechtle and Valdez, \{Andr{\'e} Calero\} and Ronja Gronemeyer and Manuela Harries and Jaeger, \{Veronika K.\} and Andr{\'e} Karch and Klett-Tammen, \{Carolina J.\} and Peter Klimek and Kretzschmar, \{Mirjam E.\} and Kai Nagel and Nielsen, \{Bjarke Frost\} and Barbara Prainsack and Radhuber, \{Isabella M.\} and Lone Simonsen and Kim Sneppen and Janik Suer and Viola Priesemann",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license. http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",

year = "2026",

month = aug,

doi = "10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104101",

language = "English",

volume = "98",

journal = "EClinicalMedicine",

issn = "2589-5370",

publisher = "Elsevier",

}

Contreras, S, Dönges, P, Müller, L, Mallick, P, Paltra, S, Hvid, U, Kettlitz, RJN, Reitenbach, A, Lind, RA, Aguiar, M, Bechtle, P, Valdez, AC, Gronemeyer, R, Harries, M, Jaeger, VK, Karch, A, Klett-Tammen, CJ, Klimek, P, Kretzschmar, ME, Nagel, K, Nielsen, BF, Prainsack, B, Radhuber, IM, Simonsen, L, Sneppen, K, Suer, J & Priesemann, V 2026, 'Mechanics of pandemics', EClinicalMedicine, vol. 98, 104101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104101

TY - JOUR

T1 - Mechanics of pandemics

AU - Contreras, Seba

AU - Dönges, Philipp

AU - Müller, Laura

AU - Mallick, Piklu

AU - Paltra, Sydney

AU - Hvid, Ulrik

AU - Kettlitz, Robyn J.N.

AU - Reitenbach, Andreas

AU - Lind, Rodrigo Amaral

AU - Aguiar, Maíra

AU - Bechtle, Philip

AU - Valdez, André Calero

AU - Gronemeyer, Ronja

AU - Harries, Manuela

AU - Jaeger, Veronika K.

AU - Karch, André

AU - Klett-Tammen, Carolina J.

AU - Klimek, Peter

AU - Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.

AU - Nagel, Kai

AU - Nielsen, Bjarke Frost

AU - Prainsack, Barbara

AU - Radhuber, Isabella M.

AU - Simonsen, Lone

AU - Sneppen, Kim

AU - Suer, Janik

AU - Priesemann, Viola

PY - 2026/8

Y1 - 2026/8

N2 - COVID-19 and previous pandemics have shown how diseases can disrupt, threaten, and transform daily life. Since pathogens and societies are continuously evolving, every pandemic is different. However, certain fundamental principles of disease transmission appear to hold true across different outbreaks. These “mechanisms” are grounded in natural laws or the very structure of our biology and societies. This paper compiles ten fundamental mechanisms, curated by a multidisciplinary team with backgrounds spanning public health, medicine, epidemiology, political science, mathematics, physics, and psychology. These mechanisms, although perhaps underappreciated, substantially shape how pandemics unfold and are controlled. The better we succeed in understanding these mechanisms and establishing this knowledge in our societies, the better we will be able to prepare for future pandemics and respond appropriately when they occur.

AB - COVID-19 and previous pandemics have shown how diseases can disrupt, threaten, and transform daily life. Since pathogens and societies are continuously evolving, every pandemic is different. However, certain fundamental principles of disease transmission appear to hold true across different outbreaks. These “mechanisms” are grounded in natural laws or the very structure of our biology and societies. This paper compiles ten fundamental mechanisms, curated by a multidisciplinary team with backgrounds spanning public health, medicine, epidemiology, political science, mathematics, physics, and psychology. These mechanisms, although perhaps underappreciated, substantially shape how pandemics unfold and are controlled. The better we succeed in understanding these mechanisms and establishing this knowledge in our societies, the better we will be able to prepare for future pandemics and respond appropriately when they occur.

KW - Behavioral epidemiology

KW - Causal models

KW - Infectious disease control

KW - Mathematical modeling

KW - Pandemic preparedness

KW - Transmission dynamics

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/105046103466

U2 - 10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104101

DO - 10.1016/j.eclinm.2026.104101

M3 - Review article

AN - SCOPUS:105046103466

SN - 2589-5370

VL - 98

JO - EClinicalMedicine

JF - EClinicalMedicine

M1 - 104101

ER -

Mechanics of pandemics

Abstract

Keywords

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