Measurement and Modeling: Infectious Disease Modeling

Mirjam Kretzschmar*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingChapterAcademicpeer-review

Abstract

After some historical remarks about the development of mathematical theory for infectious disease dynamics, we introduce a basic mathematical model for the spread of an infection with immunity. The concepts of the model are explained and the model equations are derived from first principles. Using this simple framework, we derive central concepts of infectious disease modeling such as the basic reproduction number, the endemic steady state, and the critical vaccination coverage. We explain how the basic model can be extended in various directions to accommodate specific modeling questions and needs. Finally, we give some recent examples of the use of infectious disease modeling for public health policy making.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInternational Encyclopedia of Public Health
PublisherElsevier
Pages579-585
Number of pages7
Edition2
ISBN (Electronic)9780128037089
ISBN (Print)9780128036785
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017

Keywords

  • Age structure
  • Basic reproduction number
  • Compartmental models
  • Contingency planning
  • Cost-effectiveness analysis
  • Critical vaccination coverage
  • Elimination
  • Endemic steady state
  • Extinction of infection
  • Final epidemic size
  • Force of infection
  • Heterogeneity
  • Minor and major outbreaks
  • Network models
  • Population mixing
  • Scale-free networks
  • SIR model
  • Stochastic models

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