TY - JOUR
T1 - Long-term exposure to fine particle elemental components and natural and cause-specific mortality—a pooled analysis of eight european cohorts within the ELAPSE project
AU - Chen, Jie
AU - Rodopoulou, Sophia
AU - de Hoogh, Kees
AU - Strak, Maciej
AU - Andersen, Zorana J.
AU - Atkinson, Richard
AU - Bauwelinck, Mariska
AU - Bellander, Tom
AU - Brandt, Jørgen
AU - Cesaroni, Giulia
AU - Concin, Hans
AU - Fecht, Daniela
AU - Forastiere, Francesco
AU - Gulliver, John
AU - Hertel, Ole
AU - Hoffmann, Barbara
AU - Hvidtfeldt, Ulla Arthur
AU - Janssen, Nicole A.H.
AU - Jöckel, Karl Heinz
AU - Jørgensen, Jeanette
AU - Katsouyanni, Klea
AU - Ketzel, Matthias
AU - Klompmaker, Jochem O.
AU - Lager, Anton
AU - Leander, Karin
AU - Liu, Shuo
AU - Ljungman, Petter
AU - Macdonald, Conor J.
AU - Magnusson, Patrik K.E.
AU - Mehta, Amar
AU - Nagel, Gabriele
AU - Oftedal, Bente
AU - Pershagen, Göran
AU - Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole
AU - Renzi, Matteo
AU - Rizzuto, Debora
AU - Samoli, Evangelia
AU - van der Schouw, Yvonne T.
AU - Schramm, Sara
AU - Schwarze, Per
AU - Sigsgaard, Torben
AU - Sørensen, Mette
AU - Stafoggia, Massimo
AU - Tjønneland, Anne
AU - Vienneau, Danielle
AU - Weinmayr, Gudrun
AU - Wolf, Kathrin
AU - Brunekreef, Bert
AU - Hoek, Gerard
N1 - Fvie
PY - 2021/4
Y1 - 2021/4
N2 - BACKGROUND: Inconsistent associations between long-term exposure to particles with an aerodynamic diameter
≤
2.5
μ
m
[fine particulate matter (
PM
2.5
)] components and mortality have been reported, partly related to challenges in exposure assessment.
OBJECTIVES: We investigated the associations between long-term exposure to
PM
2.5
elemental components and mortality in a large pooled European cohort; to compare health effects of
PM
2.5
components estimated with two exposure modeling approaches, namely, supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF) algorithms.
METHODS: We pooled data from eight European cohorts with 323,782 participants, average age 49 y at baseline (1985-2005). Residential exposure to 2010 annual average concentration of eight
PM
2.5
components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn)] was estimated with Europe-wide SLR and RF models at a
100
×
100
m
scale. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations between components and natural and cause-specific mortality. In addition, two-pollutant analyses were conducted by adjusting each component for
PM
2.5
mass and nitrogen dioxide (
NO
2
) separately.
RESULTS: We observed 46,640 natural-cause deaths with 6,317,235 person-years and an average follow-up of 19.5 y. All SLR-modeled components were statistically significantly associated with natural-cause mortality in single-pollutant models with hazard ratios (HRs) from 1.05 to 1.27. Similar HRs were observed for RF-modeled Cu, Fe, K, S, V, and Zn with wider confidence intervals (CIs). HRs for SLR-modeled Ni, S, Si, V, and Zn remained above unity and (almost) significant after adjustment for both
PM
2.5
and
NO
2
. HRs only remained (almost) significant for RF-modeled K and V in two-pollutant models. The HRs for V were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.05) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.10) for SLR- and RF-modeled exposures, respectively, per
2
ng
/
m
3
, adjusting for
PM
2.5
mass. Associations with cause-specific mortality were less consistent in two-pollutant models.
CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to V in
PM
2.5
was most consistently associated with increased mortality. Associations for the other components were weaker for exposure modeled with RF than SLR in two-pollutant models. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8368.
AB - BACKGROUND: Inconsistent associations between long-term exposure to particles with an aerodynamic diameter
≤
2.5
μ
m
[fine particulate matter (
PM
2.5
)] components and mortality have been reported, partly related to challenges in exposure assessment.
OBJECTIVES: We investigated the associations between long-term exposure to
PM
2.5
elemental components and mortality in a large pooled European cohort; to compare health effects of
PM
2.5
components estimated with two exposure modeling approaches, namely, supervised linear regression (SLR) and random forest (RF) algorithms.
METHODS: We pooled data from eight European cohorts with 323,782 participants, average age 49 y at baseline (1985-2005). Residential exposure to 2010 annual average concentration of eight
PM
2.5
components [copper (Cu), iron (Fe), potassium (K), nickel (Ni), sulfur (S), silicon (Si), vanadium (V), and zinc (Zn)] was estimated with Europe-wide SLR and RF models at a
100
×
100
m
scale. We applied Cox proportional hazards models to investigate the associations between components and natural and cause-specific mortality. In addition, two-pollutant analyses were conducted by adjusting each component for
PM
2.5
mass and nitrogen dioxide (
NO
2
) separately.
RESULTS: We observed 46,640 natural-cause deaths with 6,317,235 person-years and an average follow-up of 19.5 y. All SLR-modeled components were statistically significantly associated with natural-cause mortality in single-pollutant models with hazard ratios (HRs) from 1.05 to 1.27. Similar HRs were observed for RF-modeled Cu, Fe, K, S, V, and Zn with wider confidence intervals (CIs). HRs for SLR-modeled Ni, S, Si, V, and Zn remained above unity and (almost) significant after adjustment for both
PM
2.5
and
NO
2
. HRs only remained (almost) significant for RF-modeled K and V in two-pollutant models. The HRs for V were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.05) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.10) for SLR- and RF-modeled exposures, respectively, per
2
ng
/
m
3
, adjusting for
PM
2.5
mass. Associations with cause-specific mortality were less consistent in two-pollutant models.
CONCLUSION: Long-term exposure to V in
PM
2.5
was most consistently associated with increased mortality. Associations for the other components were weaker for exposure modeled with RF than SLR in two-pollutant models. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP8368.
KW - Air Pollutants/analysis
KW - Air Pollution/analysis
KW - Cause of Death
KW - Cohort Studies
KW - Environmental Exposure/analysis
KW - Humans
KW - Middle Aged
KW - Particulate Matter/analysis
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85104337619
U2 - 10.1289/EHP8368
DO - 10.1289/EHP8368
M3 - Article
C2 - 33844598
AN - SCOPUS:85104337619
SN - 0091-6765
VL - 129
SP - 1
EP - 12
JO - Environmental Health Perspectives
JF - Environmental Health Perspectives
IS - 4
M1 - 047009
ER -