Limited salt consumption reduces the incidence of chronic kidney disease: a modeling study

A B S T R A C T Background In addition to blood pressure and cardiovascular disease, high-salt intake has been associated with renal diseases. The aim of this study is to estimate the potential health impact of salt reduction on chronic kidney disease (CKD) and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in the Netherlands. Methods We developed a dynamic population health modeling tool to estimate the health impact of salt reduction on CKD and ESKD. We used data from the PREVEND study and extrapolated that to the Dutch population aged 30–75 years. We estimated the potential health impact of salt reduction comparing the current situation with the health impact of the adherence to the recommended maximum salt intake of 6 g/d. Results In the recommended maximum intake scenario, a cumulative reduction in CKD of 1.1% (N = 290 000; interquartile range (IQR) = 249 000) and in ESKD of 3.2% (N = 470; IQR = 5080) would occur over a period of 20 years. Conclusions Our health impact estimation showed that health benefits on CKD might be achieved when salt intake is reduced to the recommended maximum intake of 6 g/d.