Large-scale simulation of coverage and error rate tradeoffs for cancer detection in cell-free DNA whole-genome sequencing

MOTIVATION: Cell-free DNA (cfDNA) whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is a promising approach for detecting cancer recurrence. It enables cancer detection by identifying all tumor-derived cfDNA (ctDNA) molecules carrying somatic single nucleotide variants (sSNVs). While ideally, a sequencing platform should be highly accurate for reliable ctDNA detection, in reality, all sequencing platforms introduce sequencing errors that generate false positives indistinguishable from true SNVs. Understanding how sequencing parameters influence ctDNA detection sensitivity at low tumor fractions (TFs) in cfDNA samples is essential for guiding sequencing strategies in clinical contexts. To model cfDNA sequencing for tumor detection, which contains asymmetric noise and multiple interacting parameters, analytical modeling is intractable, motivating large-scale parallelized simulation.

RESULTS: We developed a simulation framework to generate in silico cfDNA data across 10 cancer types. In total, 480 million cfDNA samples were simulated from tumor WGS profiles. Overall, the lowest detectable TF differs substantially between cancer types under identical sequencing conditions due to variations in mutational load. For cancers with high mutational load, 3× coverage with low-error techniques reliably detects TFs below 0.1%. In contrast, cancers with low mutational load require at least six-fold higher coverage to achieve comparable detection thresholds. Increasing sequencing quality scores from Q30 to Q55 at 30× coverage further enhances sensitivity, enabling detection of TFs as low as 1 × 10-5. This study provides a comprehensive framework for optimizing sequencing parameters, offering valuable guidance for tailoring future technology development for specific cancer types and clinical applications.

AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: The code is publicly available at https://github.com/UMCUGenetics/cfdetect/tree/main.