Implications of spirometric reference values for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Objective: Spirometry is commonly used as screening tool for respiratory insufficiency in neuromuscular diseases. Despite the well-known effects of reference standards on spirometric outcomes, its standardization is overlooked in current guidelines. We aim to illustrate the effect of spirometric reference values on prognostication, medical decision-making, and trial eligibility in the applied setting of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Methods: We selected 4,651 patients with 32,022 FVC measurements from the PRO-ACT dataset. The FVC estimates were standardized according to five reference standards: Knudson '76, Knudson '83, ECSC, NHANES III, and GLI-2012. (Generalized) linear mixed-effects and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate longitudinal patterns and time-to-event outcomes. Results: The mean population %predicted FVC varied between 78.5% (95% CI 78.0-79.1) and 88.5% (95% CI 87.9-89.1). The unstandardized liters provided the worst fit on the survival data (AIC 20573, c-index 0.760), whereas the GLI provided the best fit (AIC 20374, c-index 0.780, p < 0.001). The mean population rate of decline in %predicted FVC could vary as much as 11.4% between reference standards. The median time-to-50% predicted FVC differed by 2.9 months between recent (14.5 months, 95% CI 14.4-16.1) and early reference standards (17.4 months, 95% CI 16.1-18.2). Conclusion: Independent of technique, device, or evaluator, spirometric reference values affect the utility of spirometry in ALS. Standardization of reference values is of the utmost importance to optimize clinical decision-making, improve prognostication, enhance between-center comparison and unify patient selection for clinical trials.