Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 3): calculating the sample size required for an external validation study

Richard D. Riley; Kym I.E. Snell; Lucinda Archer; Joie Ensor; Thomas P.A. Debray; Ben Van Calster; Maarten van Smeden; Gary S. Collins

doi:10.1136/bmj-2023-074821

Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 3): calculating the sample size required for an external validation study

Richard D. Riley^*, Kym I.E. Snell, Lucinda Archer, Joie Ensor, Thomas P.A. Debray, Ben Van Calster, Maarten van Smeden, Gary S. Collins

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

An external validation study evaluates the performance of a prediction model in new data, but many of these studies are too small to provide reliable answers. In the third article of their series on model evaluation, Riley and colleagues describe how to calculate the sample size required for external validation studies, and propose to avoid rules of thumb by tailoring calculations to the model and setting at hand.

Original language	English
Article number	e074821
Journal	BMJ
Volume	384
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074821
Publication status	Published - 22 Jan 2024

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abstract = "An external validation study evaluates the performance of a prediction model in new data, but many of these studies are too small to provide reliable answers. In the third article of their series on model evaluation, Riley and colleagues describe how to calculate the sample size required for external validation studies, and propose to avoid rules of thumb by tailoring calculations to the model and setting at hand.",

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AU - Debray, Thomas P.A.

AU - Van Calster, Ben

AU - van Smeden, Maarten

AU - Collins, Gary S.

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Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 3): calculating the sample size required for an external validation study

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