Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

Gary S. Collins; Paula Dhiman; Jie Ma; Michael M. Schlussel; Lucinda Archer; Ben Van Calster; Frank E. Harrell; Glen P. Martin; Karel G.M. Moons; Maarten van Smeden; Matthew Sperrin; Garrett S. Bullock; Richard D. Riley

doi:10.1136/bmj-2023-074819

Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

Gary S. Collins^*, Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Michael M. Schlussel, Lucinda Archer, Ben Van Calster, Frank E. Harrell, Glen P. Martin, Karel G.M. Moons, Maarten van Smeden, Matthew Sperrin, Garrett S. Bullock, Richard D. Riley

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.

Original language	English
Article number	e074819
Journal	BMJ
Volume	384
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/bmj-2023-074819
Publication status	Published - 2024

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title = "Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation",

abstract = "Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.",

author = "Collins, \{Gary S.\} and Paula Dhiman and Jie Ma and Schlussel, \{Michael M.\} and Lucinda Archer and \{Van Calster\}, Ben and Harrell, \{Frank E.\} and Martin, \{Glen P.\} and Moons, \{Karel G.M.\} and \{van Smeden\}, Maarten and Matthew Sperrin and Bullock, \{Garrett S.\} and Riley, \{Richard D.\}",

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AU - Dhiman, Paula

AU - Ma, Jie

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AU - Archer, Lucinda

AU - Van Calster, Ben

AU - Harrell, Frank E.

AU - Martin, Glen P.

AU - Moons, Karel G.M.

AU - van Smeden, Maarten

AU - Sperrin, Matthew

AU - Bullock, Garrett S.

AU - Riley, Richard D.

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AB - Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.

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JO - BMJ

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Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

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