Evaluation of clinical prediction models (part 1): from development to external validation

Gary S. Collins*, Paula Dhiman, Jie Ma, Michael M. Schlussel, Lucinda Archer, Ben Van Calster, Frank E. Harrell, Glen P. Martin, Karel G.M. Moons, Maarten van Smeden, Matthew Sperrin, Garrett S. Bullock, Richard D. Riley

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

Evaluating the performance of a clinical prediction model is crucial to establish its predictive accuracy in the populations and settings intended for use. In this article, the first in a three part series, Collins and colleagues describe the importance of a meaningful evaluation using internal, internal-external, and external validation, as well as exploring heterogeneity, fairness, and generalisability in model performance.

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere074819
JournalBMJ
Volume384
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2024

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