TY - UNPB
T1 - Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study
AU - van Boven, Michiel
AU - van Dorp, Christiaan H
AU - Westerhof, Ilse
AU - Jaddoe, Vincent
AU - Heuvelman, Valerie
AU - Duijts, Liesbeth
AU - Fourie, Elandri
AU - Sluiter-Post, Judith
AU - van Houten, Marlies A
AU - Badoux, Paul
AU - Euser, Sjoerd
AU - Herpers, Bjorn
AU - Eggink, Dirk
AU - de Hoog, Marieke
AU - Boom, Trisja
AU - Wildenbeest, Joanne
AU - Bont, Louis
AU - Rozhnova, Ganna
AU - Bonten, Marc J
AU - Kretzschmar, Mirjam E
AU - Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia
PY - 2023/6/5
Y1 - 2023/6/5
N2 - Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of individual susceptibility and infectivity. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is often the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we use data from a prospective household-based study to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates in the Netherlands from August 2020 to August 2021. Introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates are estimated with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. The best fitting transmission models include increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses show that vaccination of adults could have strongly reduced infection attack rates in households and that adding adolescent vaccination would have offered limited added benefit.
AB - Household studies provide an efficient means to study transmission of infectious diseases, enabling estimation of individual susceptibility and infectivity. A main inclusion criterion in such studies is often the presence of an infected person. This precludes estimation of the hazards of pathogen introduction into the household. Here we use data from a prospective household-based study to estimate SARS-CoV-2 age- and time-dependent household introduction hazards together with within household transmission rates in the Netherlands from August 2020 to August 2021. Introduction hazards and within-household transmission rates are estimated with penalized splines and stochastic epidemic models, respectively. The estimated hazard of introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in the households was lower for children (0-12 years) than for adults (relative hazard: 0.62; 95%CrI: 0.34-1.0). Estimated introduction hazards peaked in mid October 2020, mid December 2020, and mid April 2021, preceding peaks in hospital admissions by 1-2 weeks. The best fitting transmission models include increased infectivity of children relative to adults and adolescents, such that the estimated child-to-child transmission probability (0.62; 95%CrI: 0.40-0.81) was considerably higher than the adult-to-adult transmission probability (0.12; 95%CrI: 0.057-0.19). Scenario analyses show that vaccination of adults could have strongly reduced infection attack rates in households and that adding adolescent vaccination would have offered limited added benefit.
U2 - 10.1101/2023.06.02.23290879
DO - 10.1101/2023.06.02.23290879
M3 - Preprint
C2 - 37333399
T3 - medRxiv
BT - Estimation of introduction and transmission rates of SARS-CoV-2 in a prospective household study
PB - medRxiv
ER -