End-stage kidney disease in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease; incidence and risk factors: results from the UCC-SMART cohort study

Background: Patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD) are at increased risk of end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). Insights into the incidence and role of modifiable risk factors for end-stage kidney disease may provide means for prevention in patients with cardiovascular disease. Methods: We included 8402 patients with stable cardiovascular disease. Incidence rates (IRs) for end-stage kidney disease were determined stratified according to vascular disease location. Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess the risk of end-stage kidney disease for the different determinants. Results: Sixty-five events were observed with a median follow-up of 8.6 years. The overall incidence rate of end-stage kidney disease was 0.9/1000 person-years. Patients with polyvascular disease had the highest incidence rate (1.8/1000 person-years). Smoking (Hazard ratio (HR) 1.87; 95% CI 1.10–3.19), type 2 diabetes (HR 1.81; 95% CI 1.05–3.14), higher systolic blood pressure (HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.24–1.52/10 mmHg), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (HR 2.86; 95% CI 2.44–3.23/10 mL/min/1.73 m ²) and higher urine albumin/creatinine ratio (uACR) (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.15–1.23/10 mg/mmol) were independently associated with elevated risk of end-stage kidney disease. Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, non-HDL-cholesterol and exercise were not independently associated with risk of end-stage kidney disease. Conclusions: Incidence of end-stage kidney disease in patients with cardiovascular disease varies according to vascular disease location. Several modifiable risk factors for end-stage kidney disease were identified in patients with cardiovascular disease. These findings highlight the potential of risk factor management in patients with manifest cardiovascular disease. Graphic abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.].