TY - JOUR
T1 - Conditional Survival After Resection for Pancreatic Cancer: A Population-Based Study and Prediction Model
AU - Latenstein, Anouk E. J.
AU - van Roessel, Stijn
AU - van der Geest, Lydia G. M.
AU - Bonsing, Bert A.
AU - Dejong, Cornelis H. C.
AU - Koerkamp, Bas Groot
AU - de Hingh, Ignace H. J. T.
AU - Horns, Marjolein Y., V
AU - Klaase, Joost M.
AU - Lemmens, Valery
AU - Molenaar, I. Quintus
AU - Steyerberg, W.
AU - Stommel, Martijn W. J.
AU - Busch, Olivier R.
AU - van Eijck, Casper H. J.
AU - van Laarhoven, Hanneke W. M.
AU - Wilmink, Johanna W.
AU - Besselink, Marc G.
N1 - Funding Information:
The Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Project, including the NCR, received funding from the Dutch Cancer Society (KWF Kankerbestrijding; grant no. UVA2013-5842). The authors thank the registration team of the NCR for their dedicated data collection.
Funding Information:
The Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Project, including the NCR, received funding from the Dutch Cancer Society (KWF Kankerbestrijding; grant no. UVA2013-5842). The authors thank the registration team of the NCR for their dedicated data collection.
Publisher Copyright:
© 2020, The Author(s).
PY - 2020/7/1
Y1 - 2020/7/1
N2 - Background: Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed. Methods: This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005–2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0–5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. A prediction model was constructed. Results: Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17–18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics. Conclusions: This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers.
AB - Background: Conditional survival is the survival probability after already surviving a predefined time period. This may be informative during follow-up, especially when adjusted for tumor characteristics. Such prediction models for patients with resected pancreatic cancer are lacking and therefore conditional survival was assessed and a nomogram predicting 5-year survival at a predefined period after resection of pancreatic cancer was developed. Methods: This population-based study included patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (2005–2016). Conditional survival was calculated as the median, and the probability of surviving up to 8 years in patients who already survived 0–5 years after resection was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. A prediction model was constructed. Results: Overall, 3082 patients were included, with a median age of 67 years. Median overall survival was 18 months (95% confidence interval 17–18 months), with a 5-year survival of 15%. The 1-year conditional survival (i.e. probability of surviving the next year) increased from 55 to 74 to 86% at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively, while the median overall survival increased from 15 to 40 to 64 months at 1, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. The prediction model demonstrated that the probability of achieving 5-year survival at 1 year after surgery varied from 1 to 58% depending on patient and tumor characteristics. Conclusions: This population-based study showed that 1-year conditional survival was 55% 1 year after resection and 74% 3 years after resection in patients with pancreatic cancer. The prediction model is available via www.pancreascalculator.com to inform patients and caregivers.
KW - Conditional survival
KW - Pancreatic cancer
KW - Prediction model
KW - Survival
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85079489321
U2 - 10.1245/s10434-020-08235-w
DO - 10.1245/s10434-020-08235-w
M3 - Article
C2 - 32052299
SN - 1068-9265
VL - 27
SP - 2516
EP - 2524
JO - Annals of Surgical Oncology
JF - Annals of Surgical Oncology
IS - 7
ER -