Clinical Course, Outcomes, and Risk Factors of Myocarditis and Pericarditis Following Administration of mRNA-1273 Vaccination: A Protocol for a Federated Real-World Evidence Vaccine Safety Study Using Data from Five European Data Sources

Background: Myocarditis and pericarditis are recognised risks following COVID-19 vaccination, including the mRNA-1273 vaccine. Most cases occur shortly following the second dose of this vaccine, and incidence is highest among young males. However, little is known about risk factors beyond age and sex and about the longer-term clinical course. This study aims to identify possible risk factors for myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA-1273 vaccination, to characterise the clinical course of myocarditis and pericarditis, both associated with mRNA-1273 vaccination and not associated with vaccination, and to identify risk factors for severe outcomes (i.e., cardiac or thromboembolic complications, severe hospital outcomes, all-cause hospital readmission, and death). Methods: This study is being conducted within the Vaccine Monitoring Collaboration for Europe (VAC4EU) association using routinely collected healthcare data from five data sources from four European countries (Denmark, Norway, Spain, and the United Kingdom). The study is being performed using a common data model, and all analyses are performed separately in each data source in a federated manner following a common protocol. A case-cohort analysis set is identified within each data source for identifying potential risk factors for myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA-1273 vaccination using logistic regression analysis. The clinical course of myocarditis and pericarditis is being assessed using a cohort study design and describes all cases (i.e., cases associated with mRNA-1273 and unexposed cases). Cox regression analysis is applied to assess the associations between risk factors and several follow-up outcomes. Conclusions: This protocol describes the study methodology of an international collaborative initiative with the aim of assessing the risk factors and clinical course of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA-1273 vaccination using a federated network of five European data sources.