Childhood asthma prediction models: a systematic review

Henriette A Smit, Mariona Pinart, Josep M Antó, Thomas Keil, Jean Bousquet, Kai H Carlsen, Karel G M Moons, Lotty Hooft, Karin C Lødrup Carlsen

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review


Early identification of children at risk of developing asthma at school age is crucial, but the usefulness of childhood asthma prediction models in clinical practice is still unclear. We systematically reviewed all existing prediction models to identify preschool children with asthma-like symptoms at risk of developing asthma at school age. Studies were included if they developed a new prediction model or updated an existing model in children aged 4 years or younger with asthma-like symptoms, with assessment of asthma done between 6 and 12 years of age. 12 prediction models were identified in four types of cohorts of preschool children: those with health-care visits, those with parent-reported symptoms, those at high risk of asthma, or children in the general population. Four basic models included non-invasive, easy-to-obtain predictors only, notably family history, allergic disease comorbidities or precursors of asthma, and severity of early symptoms. Eight extended models included additional clinical tests, mostly specific IgE determination. Some models could better predict asthma development and other models could better rule out asthma development, but the predictive performance of no single model stood out in both aspects simultaneously. This finding suggests that there is a large proportion of preschool children with wheeze for which prediction of asthma development is difficult.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)973-84
Number of pages12
JournalThe Lancet Respiratory Medicine
Issue number12
Publication statusPublished - Dec 2015


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