Automated vertebrae identification and segmentation with structural uncertainty analysis in longitudinal CT scans of patients with multiple myeloma

Objectives: Optimize deep learning-based vertebrae segmentation in longitudinal CT scans of multiple myeloma patients using structural uncertainty analysis. Materials & Methods: Retrospective CT scans from 474 multiple myeloma patients were divided into train (179 patients, 349 scans, 2005–2011) and test cohort (295 patients, 671 scans, 2012–2020). An enhanced segmentation pipeline was developed on the train cohort. It integrated vertebrae segmentation using an open-source deep learning method (Payer's) with a post-hoc structural uncertainty analysis. This analysis identified inconsistencies, automatically correcting them or flagging uncertain regions for human review. Segmentation quality was assessed through vertebral shape analysis using topology. Metrics included ‘identification rate’, ‘longitudinal vertebral match rate’, ‘success rate’ and ‘series success rate’ and evaluated across age/sex subgroups. Statistical analysis included McNemar and Wilcoxon signed-rank tests, with p < 0.05 indicating significant improvement. Results: Payer's method achieved an identification rate of 95.8% and success rate of 86.7%. The proposed pipeline automatically improved these metrics to 98.8% and 96.0%, respectively (p < 0.001). Additionally, 3.6% of scans were marked for human inspection, increasing the success rate from 96.0% to 98.8% (p < 0.001). The vertebral match rate increased from 97.0% to 99.7% (p < 0.001), and the series success rate from 80.0% to 95.4% (p < 0.001). Subgroup analysis showed more consistent performance across age and sex groups. Conclusion: The proposed pipeline significantly outperforms Payer's method, enhancing segmentation accuracy and reducing longitudinal matching errors while minimizing evaluation workload. Its uncertainty analysis ensures robust performance, making it a valuable tool for longitudinal studies in multiple myeloma.