A Modified Delphi Study to Identify Factors Associated With Clinical Deterioration in Hospitalized Children

OBJECTIVE: Hospitalized children who are admitted to the inpatient ward can deteriorate and require unplanned transfer to the PICU. Studies designed to validate early warning scoring systems have focused mainly on abnormalities in vital signs in patients admitted to the inpatient ward. The objective of this study was to determine the patient and system factors that experienced clinicians think are associated with progression to critical illness in hospitalized children.

METHODS: We conducted a modified Delphi study with 3 iterations, administered electronically. The expert panel consisted of 11 physician and nonphysician health care providers from hospitals in Canada and the United States.

RESULTS: Consensus was reached that 21 of the 57 factors presented are associated with clinical deterioration in hospitalized children. The final list of variables includes patient characteristics, signs and symptoms in the emergency department, emergency department management, and system factors.

CONCLUSIONS: We generated a list of variables that can be used in future prospective studies to determine if they are predictors of clinical deterioration on the inpatient ward.