A look into the future of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: an expert consultation

Emil Nafis Iftekhar, Viola Priesemann*, Rudi Balling, Simon Bauer, Philippe Beutels, André Calero Valdez, Sarah Cuschieri, Thomas Czypionka, Uga Dumpis, Enrico Glaab, Eva Grill, Claudia Hanson, Pirta Hotulainen, Peter Klimek, Mirjam Kretzschmar, Tyll Krüger, Jenny Krutzinna, Nicola Low, Helena Machado, Carlos MartinsMartin McKee, Sebastian Bernd Mohr, Armin Nassehi, Matjaž Perc, Elena Petelos, Martyn Pickersgill, Barbara Prainsack, Joacim Rocklöv, Eva Schernhammer, Anthony Staines, Ewa Szczurek, Sotirios Tsiodras, Steven Van Gucht, Peter Willeit

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticleAcademicpeer-review

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Abstract

How will the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic develop in the coming months and years? Based on an expert survey, we examine key aspects that are likely to influence the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The challenges and developments will strongly depend on the progress of national and global vaccination programs, the emergence and spread of variants of concern (VOCs), and public responses to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In the short term, many people remain unvaccinated, VOCs continue to emerge and spread, and mobility and population mixing are expected to increase. Therefore, lifting restrictions too much and too early risk another damaging wave. This challenge remains despite the reduced opportunities for transmission given vaccination progress and reduced indoor mixing in summer 2021. In autumn 2021, increased indoor activity might accelerate the spread again, whilst a necessary reintroduction of NPIs might be too slow. The incidence may strongly rise again, possibly filling intensive care units, if vaccination levels are not high enough. A moderate, adaptive level of NPIs will thus remain necessary. These epidemiological aspects combined with economic, social, and health-related consequences provide a more holistic perspective on the future of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Original languageEnglish
Article number100185
Pages (from-to)1-14
JournalThe Lancet Regional Health - Europe
Volume8
Early online date30 Jul 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2021

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • Delphi study
  • Europe
  • expert survey
  • group forecast
  • non-pharmaceutical interventions
  • policy advice
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • variants of concern

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